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What are the chances for democracy in the 21st century?
It's an open question given the geopolitical turbulence of the century's first six years, and it won't be answered at Camp David, Davos or the next G8 summit.
This Thursday, some of the nation's and the world's leading academics, policymakers and international affairs experts will descend on Longwood University and Hampden-Sydney College for a unique dialogue, "America and the World: Sustaining Democracy in the Global Age."
Conference speakers include Richard Holbrooke, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and architect of the Dayton Peace Accords that ended the Bosnian conflict; Lee Hamilton, co-chair of the Iraq Study Group and a member of the 9/11 Commission; and John Agresto, a former member of the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq and a contributor to the Iraqi constitution.
The three-day conference is part of the Jamestown 2007 Commemoration Commission's signature Future of Democracy events, a series of nine conferences exploring the political, economic and societal shifts that trace their roots to 1607 and the New World's first permanent English settlement.
For some, it is a stretch to link the original Jamestown adventurers to the beginnings of democracy. Their objective was profit, not political reform. But, it was Jamestown and the geopolitical backdrop framing its expansion that created the conditions for democracy to spark, take root and spread beyond America's shores.
Fast-forward 400 years: Democracy's march forward has overthrown monarchies, defeated fascists and stood down Soviet communists. It has created its own set of problems, but also powerful economies, high standards of living, opportunities and freedom for hundreds of millions.
Its future, however, is not guaranteed. Check the newspapers. It is easy to identify several roadblocks that threaten to halt democracy in its tracks and maybe even set it back a few paces.
One challenge is the rapid pace of globalization. While creating jobs, making goods affordable and bringing different peoples together, it has a flip side. It exacerbates global economic and educational disparities, challenges long-held cultural values and beliefs, and creates societal tension as cultures collide.
Remember the Danish "Muhammad" cartoons? They sparked violence and outrage in the Islamic world far beyond Denmark's borders, a global reaction that is incompatible with and incomprehensible to democracies that value freedom of speech, media, etc.
Immigration policies also challenge democracy, especially in Europe. Immigration from North Africa and the Middle East is creating serious tension as governments struggle to assimilate new cultures. French police, for example, continue to battle civil unrest among immigrants who feel French society has completely overlooked them. The heated debate and passionate demonstrations provoked by U.S. immigration policies are healthy expressions of democracy. Violent riots in the streets of Paris are not.
Neither is international terrorism. No matter where angry, disaffected radicals come from, international terrorist organizations are capable and, as Sept. 11, 2001, proved, willing to destroy. Throw in the reality of nuclear proliferation, and international terrorism poses the most significant mortal threat to democracy since World War II.
The list of challenges goes on. Sectarian violence threatens chaos in Iraq. Russia, by intimidating critics, controlling media and dealing heavy-handedly with neighbors' energy needs, seems to be slipping when it comes to democratic reforms. Despots and a corrupt elite oppress millions in Africa, where wars, disease, hunger and misery rage.
Indeed, the world's democracies have their work cut out for them. Maintaining - and expanding - democracy is not easy, nor is it guaranteed to happen.
The stakes are high, and that is why Longwood and Hampden-Sydney are exploring the future of democracy this week. I do not expect a magic solution to emerge, but the conference will spur dialogue, thought and ideas among people who can influence decision-making on the world stage.
Cormier is president of Longwood University. For more information about "America and the World: Sustaining Democracy in a Global Age," or to register for the conference, visit www.longwood.edu/democracy.