Dr. David S. Hardin
Associate Professor of Geography

 

Courses and Course Materials (check out Blackboard, too!)
How to Survive a Hardin Course
Classroom Etiquette (printer-friendly version)
 

Geography & Earth Sciences Program

Virginia & National Elections
Longwood Young Democrats
Archived Comments on Current Events
 

Research Interests
Hobbies

Tobacco maps and graphs

University Resources:

Longwood University
Cook-Cole College of Arts and Sciences
Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences
Liberal Studies Program
Longwood Webmail
myLongwood

 

Commonwealth Resources
Virginia SOLs for Geography

Phone: 434-395-2581
Office: 205D Chichester Hall
Fall 2008 Office Hours (all EIGHT of them!):
MWF 11:00-12:00, 1:00-2:00; TR 1:00-2:00:
or by appointment
E-mail: hardinds@longwood.edu

 


PRESIDENTIAL

ELECTION

PROCESS

2008

To see the results of the Virginia and national primaries in map and graph form, click here:

http://www.longwood.edu/staff/hardinds/Politics/2008/2008_Elections.htm

WEEKLY TRACKING POLLS

 

Pre-Biden/convention bounce edition

 

 

Obama 228     McCain 252     Toss-up 139

 

Without Toss-ups:  Obama 273     McCain 265*

                                                                                                                               *assumes McCain wins Virginia

 

Now call me a pessimist (or an optimist, depending on your political orientation), but experience with the 1989 Wilder election in Virginia and the reluctance of Clinton supporters to jump wholeheartedly on the Obama bandwagon leads me to believe that most national and state polls must factor in a five percentage point disadvantage for Obama.  Polls in Virginia prior to the gubernatorial election of 1989 had Doug Wilder up as much as ten percentage points over his Republican rival Marshall Coleman.  Wilder became America's first African-American governor by a margin of 6,800 votes - 0.38 percent of the votes cast.  Obviously, ten points predicted in polling and 0.38 percent in the actual outcome raised the specter that in face-to-face and phone polling, respondents were reluctant to say they were not going to vote for Wilder when they stepped into the private confines of the voting booth.  As a result, Wilder's numbers in predominantly white districts was overrepresented in the polling data.  In exit polling, twenty-one percent of Coleman's voters cited Wilder's race as a reason they voted for Coleman or against Wilder, so we know race definitely was a factor in Wilder's narrower-than-expected victory.  The likelihood that this is not happening a mere nineteen years later for the first African-American presidential candidate seems absurd to me.  Unless Obama chooses Hillary Clinton as his VP, he also runs the risk of loosing a good ten-to-fifteen percent of Clinton's supporters - the notorious PUMAs (Party Unity My Ass people).  Linking the two factors of race and a split party, I think it is reasonable to dock Obama five percentage points in each state (it would be more in some than in others, so five is a rough average).  As a result, the tracking poll map below takes on a much more ominous look for Obama than the one above.

 

 

Obama 180     McCain 265     Toss-up 93

 

Without Toss-ups:  Obama 228     McCain 310

 

What's the level of uncertainty?

 

  

 



 

Croatia


In the field, Donja Subocka, Croatia March, 2005
The graffiti on the building - in English, no less! - says:
"CROATIA MY LOVE...SERBIAN CHETNIKS GO HOME"
("Chetnik" is a term that refers to Serb nationalists;
a unit of Canadian volunteers did go through this area
in 1995...if anyone has information on the writer, please contact me)

 

The major drawback to doing fieldwork
in Western Slavonia, Croatia
(even after over ten years, mine
contamination is a serious problem)


The other challenge: 10 years of road
deterioration in abandoned settlements
(this is a paved road; branches were scraping
both sides of the car at this point)

 


"As Geography without History seems
a carcass without motion, so
History without Geography wanders
as a Vagrant without a home."
Captain John Smith
  

"The price of liberty
is eternal vigilance."
Thomas Jefferson
 

"They that can give up essential liberty
to obtain a little temporary safety
deserve neither liberty nor safety."
Benjamin Franklin
 
  "Nothing is so unworthy of a civilized
nation as allowing itself to be
governed without opposition by an
irresponsible clique that has yielded
to base instinct."
The White Rose about Nazi Germany
 

"That which does not kill us
makes us stronger."
Friederich Neitsche
 
"The day the monkey is destined to die,

all the trees get slippery."

African proverb


Great Seal of Virginia

("Thus unto Tyrants")


The dog did what?!?
click here

 

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How evolution has failed the chimpanzee

 

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Updated August 25, 2008
 
 

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