PRESIDENTIAL

ELECTION

PROCESS

2008

To see the results of the Virginia and national primaries in map and graph form, click here:

http://www.longwood.edu/staff/hardinds/Politics/2008/2008_Elections.htm

WEEKLY TRACKING POLLS

Pre-Biden/convention bounce edition

Obama 228     McCain 252     Toss-up 139

Without Toss-ups:  Obama 273     McCain 265*

                                                                                                                               *assumes McCain wins Virginia

Now call me a pessimist (or an optimist, depending on your political orientation), but experience with the 1989 Wilder election in Virginia and the reluctance of Clinton supporters to jump wholeheartedly on the Obama bandwagon leads me to believe that most national and state polls must factor in a five percentage point disadvantage for Obama.  Polls in Virginia prior to the gubernatorial election of 1989 had Doug Wilder up as much as ten percentage points over his Republican rival Marshall Coleman.  Wilder became America's first African-American governor by a margin of 6,800 votes - 0.38 percent of the votes cast.  Obviously, ten points predicted in polling and 0.38 percent in the actual outcome raised the specter that in face-to-face and phone polling, respondents were reluctant to say they were not going to vote for Wilder when they stepped into the private confines of the voting booth.  As a result, Wilder's numbers in predominantly white districts was overrepresented in the polling data.  In exit polling, twenty-one percent of Coleman's voters cited Wilder's race as a reason they voted for Coleman or against Wilder, so we know race definitely was a factor in Wilder's narrower-than-expected victory.  The likelihood that this is not happening a mere nineteen years later for the first African-American presidential candidate seems absurd to me.  Unless Obama chooses Hillary Clinton as his VP, he also runs the risk of loosing a good ten-to-fifteen percent of Clinton's supporters - the notorious PUMAs (Party Unity My Ass people).  Linking the two factors of race and a split party, I think it is reasonable to dock Obama five percentage points in each state (it would be more in some than in others, so five is a rough average).  As a result, the tracking poll map below takes on a much more ominous look for Obama than the one above.

Obama 180     McCain 265     Toss-up 93

Without Toss-ups:  Obama 228     McCain 310

What's the level of uncertainty?

Croatia

In the field, Donja Subocka, Croatia March, 2005
The graffiti on the building - in English, no less! - says:
"CROATIA MY LOVE...SERBIAN CHETNIKS GO HOME"
("Chetnik" is a term that refers to Serb nationalists;
a unit of Canadian volunteers did go through this area
in 1995...if anyone has information on the writer, please contact me)

Great Seal of Virginia

("Thus unto Tyrants")

The dog did what?!?
click here

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How evolution has failed the chimpanzee

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Updated August 25, 2008
 
 

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